Italy are flawed, but don’t rule them out for Euro 2024 glory

And… breathe. The prospect of Italy, the reigning European champions, not qualifying for Euro 2024 – and thus scoring one out of four in their last four attempts to reach a major tournament – ​​was the kind of scenario macabre that it is not possible to imagine. Azzurri a fan wanted to think.

Even though there was a playoff safety net in March if needed, when Mykhailo Mudryk went down in the penalty area deep in second-half injury time, it felt like no one wanted to souvenir of the North Macedonia playoff match.

But the Spanish referee Jesus Gil Manzano did not whistle, his VAR colleague Jose Luis Manuel Munuera did not request control on the field… and that’s it.

– Stream on ESPN+: LaLiga, Bundesliga and more (US)

(For the record, I thought it was a real-time penalty, and most replays seemed to confirm this. Was it clear enough for VAR to intervene? That’s above my pay grade, But with a place in the Euros literally hanging on this decision, it seems absurd that Munuera wouldn’t send the referee to the screen. Especially considering what happened before the match, when comments from the UEFA President Aleksander Ceferin a month ago, who said “Italy must qualify for Euro 2024, otherwise it will be a disaster” – were widely publicized and provided Ukraine with numerous billboards.)

So it’s another close win – and a lucky one at that, but if you think back to Jorginho’s missed penalties in World Cup qualifying, maybe you can call it karma – and that begs the following questions : Is Italy good? And can they do something at the Euro?

Let’s take the second question first, and the answer is a very obvious “yes.” A lot can change between now and the start of the Euros on June 14; it’s also a knockout tournament, which means anything can happen (Greece 2004, anyone?), and most bookmakers have the Azzurri as the sixth favorite, which seems about right. The fact is that no one looks really good right now except France.

The other question – whether Italy is good – is more interesting.

In terms of approach, coach Luciano Spalletti continued on the path of his predecessor, Roberto Mancini, who shook the country three months ago when he stepped down to make money with the team National of Saudi Arabia. This means being proactive, taking the game to the opposition and wanting the ball.

It’s not what Italy was known for in the first 100-odd years of its history, during which it won four World Cups, and it’s not what France coach Didier Deschamps and England manager Gareth Southgate believe they are performing at international level. But it’s fun to watch, it’s what the most successful teams do at club level, and analysts will tell you it’s your best chance for success.

The problem is that analysts work with large and broad samples, and not with the individual reality of a team, taking into account its quirks and weaknesses. Which in the case of Italy, not the most cohesive and experienced group, means you could have games like Monday night, where they dominated Ukraine for about an hour, could have scored two or three goals, then suffered mightily in the final. ends when their opponents, having nothing to lose, threw the kitchen sink at them, almost causing them to trip, but for that penalty, no appeal.

As for the staff, it’s random.

Gianluigi Donnarumma may not have reached the heights some predicted he would when he became a Serie A starter at 16, but he can be a stopper when he’s at the top of his game. The last four, much criticized in the past, are deeper than they seem. Full-backs Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Federico Dimarco are among the best in the world in their respective positions.

In the middle, it is true that for a key match like Ukraine, Spalletti had to call on Francesco Acerbi, 35, and Alessandro Buongiorno, the latter making only his second start. But they did well and these guys are fourth or fifth choice in the pecking order anyway. (My partnership? Alessandro Bastoni and Giorgio Scalvini, but that’s just me.) Plus, last time Italy won the Euros with 36-year-old Giorgio Chiellini and 34-year-old Leonardo Bonucci, so yeah , I can live with that.

The problems start to arise in midfield: get past the excellent Nicolò Barella and you can break through anyone. The other two starters against Ukraine, Davide Frattesi and Jorginho, are not club regulars (they have started five league matches in total for Inter and Arsenal respectively.) Bryan Cristante is a blue-collar ball winner. .. and the person responsible for the Mudryk incident.) Sandro Tonali has been banned for 10 months and will not be there. Lorenzo Pellegrini has been injured for most of this season, having started just three league matches. Marco Verratti is playing in Qatar these days, while Manuel Locatelli is not having a great season and feels more and more like “just another guy”.

From there, things get even worse. Federico Chiesa is Italy’s biggest offensive threat, and if he plays like he did against Ukraine, he can carry the team. But he has missed big chunks of the last two seasons and consistency is not his strong point, even if he embodies durability and stability compared to Monday’s other starter, Nicolò Zaniolo. Yeah, when Zaniolo is good, he’s almost unplayable. But between injuries and dips in form – there’s a reason he’s 24 and has only started 79 league games in his career – we don’t see much of him.

There isn’t much depth either. Matteo Politano? Domenico Berardi? Mattia Zaccagni? Moses Kean? Stephan El Shaarawy? They are worker bees who turn it on from time to time, but offer little more. And before we talk about Wilfried Gnonto, let’s first see him become a regular for Leeds in the English Championship, shall we?

And that’s before we get to the center forward role. Giacomo Raspadori was delighted to watch against Ukraine, but once Victor Osimhen is fit, we imagine he returns to the Napoli bench. Ciro Immobile turns 34 in February, is having his worst season in years and no one seems to like him anyway.

Mateo Retegui? He scored a few goals after giving up on his Argentinian dream, but he’s injured again and I’m not sure a guy who’s 24 and spent six seasons on loan from a bigger club to a smaller club or the guy in whose basket you want to store your eggs. That leaves Gianluca Scamacca. He’s big, strong and convincing at times, but he’s also the guy who has scored double figures just once in his career, who missed out at West Ham United last season and who has been in and out of the Atalanta team this year.

Could someone else chime in? Maybe someone among Lorenzo Lucca, Lorenzo Colombo or Pietro Pellegri will flourish (or, in Pellegri’s case, stay healthy), but there’s nothing to count on. And none of these guys will soon be confused with Erling Haaland (or even Niclas Füllkrug).

So yes, this team is imperfect, uneven and incomplete. But it’s international football… that’s pretty much the norm. And hey, at least they will indeed be there, unlike the last major tournament.